Tips and Strategies for MLB Betting Baseball – Part 2
Betting baseballis one of the best ways to make money at since it is one of the easiest sports to handicap. Many sportsbooks (both online and Nevada) will tell you that during baseball they are happy to simply break even. It’s surprising that more people aren’t betting baseball since there is such great value and money making opportunities available. One reason it’s not as popular is that most people don’t understand baseball betting, so below we’ve put together some general information on how it all works. Another reason that people don’t get involved is many don’t have the time to study the teams, pitchers and all the information needed to be successful. If you fit in that category, help is available.
At Doc’s Sports we’re on top of everything that is involved with baseball betting, and making our clients money. Vince, our MLB man; has been with Doc’s Sports 12 out of our last 32 years in business. Vince is in the office seven days a week and has become well known as one of the best, in handicapping baseball. For those of you who like numbers – the last five years alone his baseball picks had a Weekly Top Game record of 77-43 and his Game of the Month is a solid 24-7.
MONEY LINES (betting sides)
If you are new to betting baseball one of the first things that you will notice is that there is no point spreads involved. Betting baseball involve odds that are represented as a Money Line. Money Lines are odds expressed in terms of a dollar so if you bet a Favorite you will lay more than a dollar in order to win a dollar and if you bet an underdog you will wager a dollar to win more than a dollar. Baseball betting lines are expressed as a dollar with cents and sometimes the decimal will be used. Odds of -1.45 and -145 are the same thing. A favorite that is -145 means that you have to bet 145 to win 100. On the opposite side if one were to bet an underdog at +145 you would only have to bet 100 to win 145. So simply put the favorite is always a minus and the underdog will always be a plus.
Don’t let anyone tell you it doesn’t matter where you bet baseball. Baseball betting lines are not created equal. Smart baseball bettors will only play a “Dime Line” or a 10-cent line which offers the player the most value for their baseball gambling dollar.
In a game carrying a dime line, a minus -145 favorite would be paired with an underdog ,of plus +135. If that same game had a 20-cent line, the underdog would get back only +125. Ten cents on the dollar can easily add up to hundreds or thousands of dollars over the course of a baseball season. Even if you consider yourself a small bettor you should always us a sportsbook that offers a true “Dime Line”
Since the pitcher is one of the most important positions the line or odds are based largely by the starting pitchers listed. Taking this into account you have four options when betting baseball.
Listed Pitcher – A baseball bet is made on a game stating, listed pitchers and both of the listed pitchers must start the game. A pitcher is determined to have made a start after he throws the opening pitch for his team. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start the game, the bet has no action and the bettors money is refunded.
Specify team pitcher- A baseball bet is made placing a bet specifying just the pitcher starting for the team you are betting on. As long as the pitcher starts for the team you have bet, you have action on the game, no matter or not the opposing team’s listed pitcher starts. If the opposing team’s pitcher doesn’t start, this usually means that a new price is determined for the game.
Team Action- If you bet on a team with normal action, then the bet is good regardless of a change in starting pitchers for either team. The odds may be adjusted if there is a change in the listed pitchers.
Team action against listed pitcher- In this situation a bet can be made on a team and the bet is good regardless of whether or not the listed pitcher starts for that team as long as the listed pitcher for the other team does in fact start the game.
Baseball totals are fairly straightforward like football or basketball. The total refers to the number of runs both teams score for the entire game. This also includes extra innings if the game goes past 9 innings. Both listed pitchers must start for a total bet to have action. If one, or both, of the listed pitchers do not start, then a bet on the game total has no action, and all bets are refunded.
The run line involves a team getting 1 1/2 runs (the underdog) while the favorite must lay 1 1/2 runs. A money line is also with to the 1 1/2 runs For a favorite to win on the run line, the team must then win by 2 runs. The odds,, on a favorite will usually be a plus number because the team must win by at least 2 runs. The money line attached to the team getting 1 1/2 runs will usually be a minus number because the team can still lose by one run and still be a winning bet. The same rules that apply for totals apply for run lines: listed pitchers must start, and the game can not be called early.
Here is and example of a Run Line
Yankees – 1 1/2 +120 Devil Rays + 1 1/2 – 140
If you bet the Yankees would win by 2 runs or more you would win $1.20 for every $1.00 bet
If you bet that the Devil Rays would win or they can lose by less than two runs you will have to risk $1.40 for every $1.00 you want to win.
We hope that this has given you some basic knowledge for betting baseball. Simply but the two most important things are to shop around for the best odds and of pick more winners than losers.
Some would argue that betting on baseball is much more difficult than other sports. It’s never quite as simple as taking or giving the points in most people’s minds, although you can always take the run line if you want simplicity. And really the money line also is simply betting on the favorite and the over/under is no different than in any other sport.
If you check on Sportsbook, you will see that baseball comes in way behind pro and college football and pro and college basketball in terms of betting action. I agree it’s not quite as cut and dried as the other sports.But you need to cure that betting fix during those summer months when your only option among the Big 4 sports is baseball. So hopefully a few basic MLB betting strategies from Doc’s can turn you into a winner.
First off, every baseball line is predicated mainly on the starting pitcher. It doesn’t matter if the Kansas City Royals have won nine games in a row and are at home, if the Royals are facing, say, Toronto’s Roy Halladay, they are going to be underdogs. Always check the pitchers’ performance in the past three games. I would argue how a guy did against a team in past years is irrelevant with all the year-to-year turnover, although Halladay, for example, has owned the Red Sox and Yankees in his career.
Home-field advantage also means much less in baseball. Sure, the home team gets to bat last, but on average the home team wins about 54 percent of the time in Major League Baseball, a far cry from the averages in the NFL, NBA and NHL. And as a series progresses that home-field winning percentage tends to go down a bit. Shoot, look at the Philadelphia Phillies in the early part of 2009: They were 31-16 on the road and just 27-25 at home and that home record was below .500 much of the year.
Another strategy I like is to take is the ‘under’ and the home team ,on getaway days. Getaway days are the final game of a series, usually on a Thursday or Sundy afternoon. This means the visiting team (and certainly sometimes the home team) have to head out of town following the game, which is scheduled early to allow for travel. More times than not, you will see a more patchwork lineup in getaway games because it’s so early after a Wednesday night game and managers want to give their stars a break. In addition, players seem to be a little less focused in these games. For what it’s worth, White Sox pitcher Mark Buerhle’s 2009 perfect game came in a getaway game.
Speaking of travel, it’s always best to bet on a home team that played at home the night before (or was off) against a team that had to travel following a game the night before. That’s just common sense that the home team got to sleep in their own beds while the visitors had the travails that come with travel.
Another positive trend is the revenge system. That is wagering on a home team that was beaten by three or more runs in the previous game against the same opponent. More often than not, you will see that home game come out riled up the following night (or day). But then that same home team might exert so much energy in Game 2 of a series, for example, that it won’t have much left for Game 3. Need an example: The Tampa Bay Rays were beaten 11-2 at home in Game 1 against the Yankees. The Rays countered with a spirited 6-2 win in Game 2, only to fall by the same score on Wednesday when frustrations began to show. Obviously the starting pitchers play a huge role in revenge games but it’s a trend worth keeping an eye on.
When it comes to the dog days of September, that’s when you really want to hammer on the playoff contending teams against those out of contention. Usually the out-of-contention clubs are playing young kids and looking ahead to next year, while the contenders are still giving it all they have to earn a postseason spot. This is the one time of the year to really jump on MLB favorites.
Lastly, always consider the ballpark and the weather when betting on baseball totals. The new Yankee Stadium is definitely an over park, and you probably won’t see a total below 10 there the rest of the year. Wrigley Field, is usually an over park, but often the wind can be blowing in there, keeping the scores low. Also check to see if a team’s closer has pitched in consecutive games before betting on an outcome. Usually a manager will limit a closer to three consecutive outings before turning to someone less reliable.
Baseball Lines and Odds
Doc’s Sports MLB baseball line feed offers you the most current and updated MLB baseball lines and odds available anywhere and best of all you can compare the lines against 5 of the top sportsbooks in the world.
Jason Sharpe MLB FREE PLAY FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 13TH 2012: Take # 961 New York Yankees -105 over Atlanta (7:10pm est): The New York Yankees have come out in the first two games of this series and made a statement against a good National League team and done it while also being here on the road. The Yankees have won five straight games (all against NL teams) and have looked dominant in doing so winning by a combined 27-11 score against the Mets and Braves, two above average teams. Things started out a little slow this season for veteran starter Hiroki Kuroda coming over from the National League but he has really picked things up of late and has looked like the steady and consistent guy that most expected him to be this season for the Yankees. Kuroda comes in with an ERA of below 1.00 in his last three starts while posting 14 strikeouts to go along with only 3 walks during this time. He has only allowed more than three runs in just one of his last nine starts overall and has an ERA of just 2.98 during this time.
The Braves counter here with their own veteran right-hander in Tim Hudson. After getting out of the gates to a fast start this season, Hudson has struggled in two of his last three outings. His ERA is over 5.00 during this time despite the fact one of those games was a complete game shutout. Hudson’s average fastball velocity sits below 90 mph for the first time in his career and his ground ball rate has taken a step backwards in the last two season’s, this from a guy who was once one of the game’s best at keeping the ball down and forcing a ton of grounders in a contest. That looks to be no longer the case here with Hudson, as he is still good at inducing grounders but he is just not great these days.
The Yankees are flexing their muscles in this series, showing just how much better the good teams of the AL are when compared to the good teams of the NL. Getting them here with a pitcher pitching as well as Kuroda has of late and currently at this price is great value. Take New York here. My NBA Final’s is off to a nice 1-0 start with a opening game winner last night as OKC won and covered in the contest. Jump on board and let’s make some money in what should be a highly entertaining championship to watch. I feel I have a great grasp on both these two teams right now and have now went 5-2 my last seven side plays in pro hoops action.
Baseball betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand MLB baseball lines, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these MLB baseball, lines with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Yankees and Red Sox (and other public teams) every night so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that. In baseball betting, the moneyline is used, which is a little different than the point spread in football. Runline betting is also another form of baseball wagering that is increasing in popularity.